COLUMBIA, Mo. 鈥 The word is out about Ahmad Hardy.
It wasn鈥檛 when the running back who currently leads the Football Bowl Subdivision in rushing yards was a zero-star recruit out of Oma, Mississippi. There were enough rumblings after his freshman season at Louisiana-Monroe to attract the interest of Missouri. Here at the Post-Dispatch, the extent of his potential was textually unfurled in April.
Now, after 103 carries, 730 rushing yards, 551 yards after contact, 48 missed tackles forced and nine touchdowns, Hardy is a secret no more.
Just Thursday, he was profiled by The Athletic 鈥 owned by The New York Times 鈥 and 鈥淗ardy鈥 was the five-letter answer to the Times鈥 daily Wordle puzzle.
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He looks like the centerpiece of No. 14 Mizzou鈥檚 offense in both production and scheme. At least, he has been through the Tigers鈥 5-0 start to the season. But what will he be during the seven Southeastern Conference games left on the schedule?
鈥淗onestly, we鈥檒l find out this week,鈥 MU coach Eli Drinkwitz said. 鈥淚 mean, he鈥檚 done it his whole career, but the challenges continue to grow this week.鈥
The challenge of this week is the No. 8 Alabama Crimson Tide, which visits for Saturday鈥檚 11 a.m. game. And in this matchup, Hardy could be key.
Alabama鈥檚 defense has not been especially adept at stopping the run so far. The Tide鈥檚 155.4 rushing yards allowed per game is the fourth-most in the SEC. And that includes some lopsided games against Louisiana-Monroe and Wisconsin.
Florida State, in Week 1, ran the ball 49 times for 230 yards and four touchdowns en route to a win over Bama. Georgia picked up 227 yards on 33 attempts. Vanderbilt ditched the run once it fell behind the Tide last weekend but still managed 135 yards on 19 attempts.
That means in two SEC games, Alabama has given up 6.9 yards and 7.1 yards per rushing attempt, which bodes well for Hardy, secondary tailback Jamal Roberts and Mizzou鈥檚 offense.
Unless the Crimson Tide are comfortable conceding that sort of yardage against the Tigers, their defense will almost certainly need to adjust. In the abstract, Alabama defensive coordinator Kane Wommack said this week that he wants to see immediate and continuous physicality from his players.
鈥淭hat鈥檚 one thing I want to make sure we keep on the forefront of our players鈥 minds,鈥 Wommack said. 鈥淲e will make adjustments, we will have game plans going into each week and (based on) what each opponent in the SEC gives us.鈥
Tweaks from the Tide are likely to be more schematic than pure physicality. Hardy鈥檚 propensity to run defenders over alone necessitates that.
The natural adjustment from Alabama would be to load the box, keeping an extra defender or two closer to the line of scrimmage for run-stopping duties. It wouldn鈥檛 be shocking if the Tide place eight defenders in the box 鈥 the area between the tackles and within a few yards of the line of scrimmage.
Opponents who quickly figured out how talented Hardy is are already doing that to the Tigers.
Missouri, which has deployed designed runs on 52% of its offensive plays, has seen 鈥渉eavy鈥 boxes from opposing defenses on 53% of snaps this season, according to SIS Football analytics. That鈥檚 a whopping 16 percentage points more than the FBS average.
So teams have been moving defenders inside and up to ward off Hardy鈥檚 carries but to little effect. Mizzou has still posted a play success rate of 0.55 against heavy boxes. That鈥檚 a better mark against heavy boxes than the offenses of, for example, Alabama, Oklahoma, Texas A&M, Texas, Louisiana State, Indiana, Notre Dame and Illinois.
(Success rate is an advanced stat that measures how many yards a play produces compared to down and distance. A success rate of 0.55 is pretty good.)
Part of why the Tigers seem to do well against heavy defenses is their willingness to beef up on their side of the ball, too. MU has deployed 鈥12 personnel鈥 鈥 one running back, two tight ends 鈥 on 36% of offensive snaps this season. That鈥檚 a hefty 14 percentage points more frequently than the FBS average, per SIS.
Putting two tight ends on the field gives Mizzou another blocker for run looks, another big body who can match up with the extra linebacker deployed by a defense loading up the box. MU especially leaned on 12 personnel to bolster the left side of the line with Jayven Richardson filling in for Cayden Green at left tackle, but it鈥檚 a staple of coordinator Kirby Moore鈥檚 offense regardless. Even in the pass game, Moore likes to use play action to free up tight end Brett Norfleet on some bootlegs.
The analytics support this usage. The Tigers have a higher success rate with 12 personnel (0.59) than their standard 11 personnel (0.52), which is when a slot receiver takes the place of the added tight end.
That 0.59 mark with 12 personnel on the field is better than of all the schools mentioned above, plus Oregon and Tennessee.
Alabama may very well try to throw more defenders at Hardy and the Missouri ground game. The Tigers will happily put another tight end on the field to lean into that style. What might be an adjustment for the Crimson Tide is something Mizzou has already seen and will continue to see this season.
鈥淚t鈥檚 really nothing to prepare for,鈥 Hardy said. 鈥淲e just do what we do.鈥
