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COLUMBIA, Mo. 鈥� Here comes October football for the Missouri Tigers, and it needs no costume to look intimidating. Three times this month, Mizzou will knock on the door of football fate.

The question is not whether it鈥檚 tricks or treats that await MU. There are no treats left on Missouri鈥檚 schedule, with the doable and docile matchups squarely in the 5-0 Tigers鈥� rearview mirror. From here on out, each of the remaining seven games 鈥� four on the road, all against Southeastern Conference opponents 鈥� are various degrees of tricky.

This month in particular will ask a different question of No. 14 Mizzou: Is it plucky or lucky?

And whichever it is, is that enough to keep MU on a path toward a special season?

The pluck and luck factors are more about the type of game that Missouri is likely to encounter over the next few weekends than the opponents. At home to a blueblood in No. 8 Alabama, at a flawed but finnicky Auburn and at the chaos machine that is Vanderbilt are each individually more difficult matchups than Mizzou saw in its first five games.

Make no mistake: They鈥檙e winnable for the Tigers. Losable, too. The margin between those outcomes is probably going to be slim.

Get used to it.

Mizzou is projected to play in six games yet this season that鈥檒l have a one-possession spread, according to Kelley Ford Ratings鈥� algorithm. That鈥檚 tied for the most in the SEC with Oklahoma. Florida is the only other SEC team projected at five or more one-score spreads.

Those matchups are the Crimson Tide, Auburn and Vanderbilt this month, then home against Texas A&M, at Oklahoma and at Arkansas in November.

That鈥檚 when and where the pluck and luck will be tested.

One-possession games never feel like they鈥檙e about analytics, sustainability or the quote-unquote 鈥渂etter鈥� team winning. Instead, they鈥檙e a matter of singular decisive plays, costly turnovers, points left on the board, guts, grit and the occasional twist of fate.

MU is one of only a few SEC programs not to have played in a one-score game yet this season, joined only by South Carolina and Vanderbilt.

Yet the Tigers are quite experienced in those close contests.

Dating back to the program鈥檚 breakout 2023 campaign, Missouri is 10-1 in one-possession games.

There was a narrower-than-needed win against Middle Tennessee in Week 2 of the 鈥�23 season, followed by Harrison Mevis鈥� 61-yard walk-off field goal to beat Kansas State by three points. MU beat Memphis by seven in the Dome at America鈥檚 Center, then converted on fourth-and-17 to set up a two-point win over Florida late in that season.

The calls only became closer in 2024.

Six points was the margin in a nonconference win over Boston College in Week 3 of that season. A missed field goal in double overtime got the Tigers past Vandy a week later, by three points. Four points and whatever was pumped into Brady Cook鈥檚 ankle against Auburn. Seven points of cushion created during the hullabaloo that was the ending of MU-Oklahoma. At South Carolina, the one loss, suffered by four points and even more missed tackles than that. In the snow against Arkansas, seven points. In the Music City Bowl against Iowa, three points thanks to another long field goal.

Plucky? Lucky?

Hard to say, and it didn鈥檛 really matter 鈥� like how the distinction won鈥檛 this month, so long as the Tigers continue their winning ways in this kind of game.

It wasn鈥檛 always like this. Like one-score games themselves, teams鈥� performances in those matchups tend to swing back and forth.

Mizzou lost three one-possession games in a row during the 2022 season: an unfortunate fumble at Auburn, an almost-upset against Georgia and a seven-point road defeat to Florida.

But since going 7-7 in one-score games during Eli Drinkwitz鈥檚 first three seasons coaching the Tigers, winning those games has become a calling card of the team鈥檚 turnaround. An involuntary calling card, perhaps.

鈥淓verybody鈥檚 talking, 鈥楾hey were so good in one-possession games,鈥欌�� center Connor Tollison said a few weeks ago when discussing the offense鈥檚 success. 鈥淟ike, they don鈥檛 have to be one-possession games.鈥�

Indeed, they don鈥檛. It might be better for everyone鈥檚 cardiac well-being if they weren鈥檛. But at Mizzou and in the SEC 鈥� particularly with this year鈥檚 conference landscape so fertile for parity 鈥� one-possession games will stick around anyway.

Better be ready for it.