Read the transcript of our weekly Blues chat.
Matthew DeFranks: Good afternoon! The draft is Friday. Free agency and development camp are next week. Let's get to some questions.
HallPlante: Justin Faulk is someone that many Blues fans would like to see shipped out. Finding a sucker ... er, buyer will not be easy. Which scenario is more plausible? That he's traded (with a sweetener) to a team trying to reach the cap floor, or to a Cup contender that views him as an upgrade on its 3rd pairing?
Matthew DeFranks: Out of those two scenarios, the first one is probably more likely. Cup contenders don't have third-pairing defensemen with a $6.5 million cap hit. Florida had Nate Schmidt ($800k) on the third pair this season, and Oliver Ekman-Larsson ($2.25M) as value adds on the third pair. Both guys were bought out, so they tend to come cheaper, but those are the guys contenders want on the third pair.
Jock Ewing: Matt - Haven't heard anything about Kyrou considering his no-trade is about to kick in. Is your sense that he's safely a Blue for 25-26?
TimG: Seeing some Kyrou chatter and he's made his way to some insiders trade board as high as number 2 on the list..what chances do you see of him getting traded prior to his NTC kicking in on June 30th?
Matthew DeFranks: Just grouping the Jordan Kyrou questions here together.
For those that missed it: earlier today, Frank Seravalli listed Jordan Kyrou at No. 2 on his trade target board after not including him previously. Frank is generally pretty plugged in, so I trust that there is chatter about Kyrou in the marketplace. I haven't heard much from the 最新杏吧原创 end of things, but the Blues are generally very tight-lipped about these sorts of things.
Trading Kyrou has been a hot topic in this chat for a few years now, and I've always fallen on the side of keeping him. He's a young, cost-controlled (at a great number) goal-scorer that can create offense for himself. You live with the defensive deficiencies and the turnovers, even if that part of his game improved this season.
The other side is that his value may never be higher. He's about a week away from being able to dictate his next location, even if he does end up wanting to leave 最新杏吧原创. We've seen teams get poor returns when there's only a couple bidders. He's consistently been a 30-35 goal scorer. It's Doug Armstrong's job to know the market on his players, and I'm sure Kyrou's is high at this point.
The Blues need help down the middle for sure. They could use another young defenseman. They have plenty of wingers: Buchnevich, Kyrou, Holloway, Snuggerud, Neighbours, Bolduc.
So I can understand the reasoning behind getting to this point, but this team was 13th in the league in scoring last season. And you want to take the most individually dynamic player off the team? Where do the goals come from?
A concerned fan: I'm hearing smoke again around Kyrou being traded before July 1st. Please tell me this is just wishful thinking of all the Kyrou haters and not an actual thing.
If they really are fielding offers what would they be looking for?
Matthew DeFranks: A controllable, young asset probably aged 21-25 with the ability to grow with the younger part of this core.
Noah Dobson fits in that range, but he's due a massive contract, and Doug Armstrong mentioned that the Blues weren't really looking to set the market in the exploding-cap NHL.
I know Jason Robertson's name has been out there, and the Blues would have to add to the package to make that work. I'm not sure the Stars are set on trading him, let alone to a division rival.
HallPlante: If Army is injected with truth serum, which young forward does he confess to have the least value in his opinion? Neighbors, Bolduc, Snuggerud and Dvorsky.
Matthew DeFranks: I think it's Bolduc. Neighbours has NHL production. Snuggerud and Dvorsky have the promise of potential.
Jason: Hi, Matthew. Looking more and more like Claude Giroux will hit the market. Would the Blues have interest there? Still putting up points, best in the league on the dot last year, great intangibles. Salary would fit and term seems ideal. I know he's happy being closer to home and have heard the Habs rumored as a fallback if Ottawa can't get it done, but maybe Army could make a good pitch?
Matthew DeFranks: On a one- or two-year deal? Sure. Perhaps a one-year 35+ contract with performance bonuses works. But the number would have to be right. This is not the same player. He just put up his worst per-game numbers in 15 years and he's 37 years old.
The main issue with his faceoff numbers is that he's right-handed. Robert Thomas will be taking many of the draws that Giroux was taking before on the PP, PK and late-game scenarios.
But I'm sure Brayden Schenn would enjoy a throwback to the 2017 Flyers.
Jock Ewing: Matt - What have you heard on the proposal about moving the end of the season more toward the end of May and either eliminating a couple of pre-season games or starting the season earlier?
Matthew DeFranks: This is just based on my opinion, but I don't see it. Moving up the season three weeks because of what compelling reason? In this situation, they overlap even more with football, both college and NFL, and that's a real issue in many American markets.
I am, however, all for eliminating more preseason games. We do not need eight of them.
Sctdog: I like Kyrou and a recent Athletic article suggested the Blues forward group was one of the strongest partially because of his production, but is now the time you trade him and another asset for a potential top pair D like Dobson? Do you have enough faith in Bolduc and Snug that they will progress and provide enough scoring depth as an offset, and of course ultimately Dvorsky as well. His contract will be a bargain over the next few years for a consistent 30 goal scorer, but you need a mid-20 year old good D to offset the age of your D corps?
Matthew DeFranks: You're right. His contract is going to age superbly for the production he will contribute. Goals are hard to find, and he has the consistent ability to find the back of the net.
As we touched on a little bit earlier, his value is probably the highest it's going to be right now. He's productive on a good contract and about to have complete control over his next destination in a week. He's even made improvements in areas that he needed to away from the puck. So there's not really a realistic point in the future when he would have more value.
When we think about the Blues getting a top-six center or a top-four defenseman, we can think about where those pieces come from. The draft? That would take five or six years for that player to fit that role. Free agency? The age range probably doesn't fit what the Blues want to do since almost every FA is 28+ and tends to be overpaid on July 1. And then we get to trades.
Robert Thomas isn't getting traded, and the Blues have talked for years now about this young group of players. So if they are off limits, is Kyrou the best chance to acquire a top-six center or a top-four defenseman? Probably.
Sctdog: I was thinking, and maybe this has been suggested before, Kyrou, Faulk and a number 1 for Dobson as it adds balance to both teams, NYI has few good young forwards and the Blues need a top 4 D. Is this realistic?
Matthew DeFranks: I'm not sure the Islanders have much of a need for Faulk, to be honest. As for Dobson, since he seems to be a popular target for Blues fans, he's a legit player.
His play-driving numbers are among the top 20 defensemen at 5v5, in terms of controlling attempts, shots, chances, expected goals, etc. His production on the power play took a big step back this year, but it's been there before.
Sctdog: Do you expect the sum of Blues UFA day being announcement about signing Holloway and Broberg to hopefully 8 year contracts?
Matthew DeFranks: Not really. When Doug Armstrong talked to reporters two days ago, he mentioned that extensions for Fowler, Broberg and Holloway were not priorities, especially given the rising cap climate and new normal that teams will have to deal with with contracts.
HallPlante: What is your opinion on Blues new jerseys?
Matthew DeFranks: I think they look great. I understand I don't have the history in this city that many of you do, but when I got here, I thought that the light blue threads should be the full-time look. So I really like that color palette as the full-time look. The white jersey is unreal.
I do think so teams get too nostalgic about uniforms that they've won championships in, so I'm glad to see the Blues didn't get that way about the set they won the Cup in. Those are really too busy with too many Blues and lines everywhere, in my opinion.
Sctdog: I liked our fourth line in the playoffs, but Torp鈥檚 drop in production during the season is concerning, and I think it鈥檚 unclear we can assume Walker keeps chugging. Even w solid seasons combined they may not add up to 15 goals. Also, Sunny and Faksa add only mid-single digit totals as well. Do the Blues need to upgrade their 4th line roster? Army and others have previously mentioned Kaskimaki and Peterson as having good AHL seasons and Dean is out there was well.
Matthew DeFranks: I think that would be down the list of priorities. Even if the fourth line is improved marginally over what they had before, it's marginally improved for 10 minutes a game.
I think the biggest attributes that Toropchenko has that those minor leaguers don't are size and speed. He's a large man, and he moves really well. Peterson has some size and skating, but not the same degree. Kaskimaki and Dean tend to land on the average to below average spot on the size spectrum.
Sctdog: In previous years it appeared the cost to trade a Faulk contract was a second round pick, with the cap going up can they get away with trading his cap for less, 3rd or 4th?
Matthew DeFranks: Maybe? I don't know. I've generally had trouble with trade value for guys making too much money. For instance, the Walman trade to San Jose and the Kane trade to Vancouver both surprised me in what was included (in different ways).
DCG: Matthew: I know that DA plays things close to the vest and is fearless and can surprise with almost any kind of move. With that as a qualifier, what do you think is the most likely move/addition(s) the Blues will make this summer, and what do you think is the most surprising (though still feasible) addition DA might make? To clarify, signing Marner would be the most surprising, but it's not really feasible given what his salary demands will be. So, something for the latter question, I truly mean something big/surprising but that could actually happen.
Matthew DeFranks: If the Blues could go out and get a piece like Mikael Granlund on a short-term-ish deal, that would be a great add. Gives Dvorsky time to develop, gives them Thomas-Granlund-Schenn down the middle, and slots Sundqvist down as the 4C.
Easy Ed: Matt, I agree we should keep Kyrou unless someone offers something beyond reason, which won't happen. He improved on D last year, and in the playoff vs. Jets he was very competent on D, backchecking and so forth. You make good points about FA signings being unlikely to advance the team that 5%, so it's a trade probably. Except any free agent that would make a good #2 C? If a trade, any teams look promising? I know Army will have a ton of irons in the fire. Go Blues!
Matthew DeFranks: The Islanders (Dobson) and Sabres (Byram) would make sense given their trade pieces' ages and positions. We know Doug Armstrong and Steve Yzerman are trade buddies, and if the Blues could get Edvinsson out of Detroit, that could be enticing.
Jimfla: Hi Matt. Thx for your time today. I think Kyrou should not be traded. 30 goal scorers are hard to come by and I think Kyrou, along with Schenn and Holloway, were the Blues best line in many games. I don鈥檛 think Kyrou has ever looked better than on that line. I would rather see them trade Neighbors as part of a package for Noah Dobson. And go after Pius Suter, if available.
Matthew DeFranks: You're right, they were the team's best line for a solid two months before Robert Thomas caught fire. Not only that, but if you look at underlying numbers, they were one of the league's best lines at controlling expected goals. So there would be a sizable risk in getting rid of a player that you know can contribute at a high level on a cheapish contract.
HallPlante: With Jake Walman and Niko Mikkola playing in Cup final, what are chances Blues have regrets about losing those two young LHD?
Matthew DeFranks: Mikkola, not sure they have regrets about. He wasn't going to be given top-four opportunity on that blue line before he reached UFA, and was a pretty sensible piece to trade at the 2023 deadline.
Walman, I think there could be some regrets. We just saw what he could do in depth minutes on a contending team. And the Blues are now looking at Nick Leddy on their team. So I think we can see mistakes there.
HallPlante: How do the Blues compare to other NHL teams in the use of analytics and related staffing? Does Monty strike you as someone who devours those numbers?
Matthew DeFranks: The Blues are expanding their analytics staff this summer, adding a developer and an engineer to help on the back end with data.
As it stands now, Michael Perelman and Madison Greenough are the only people part of the analytics departments, with Ryan Miller in charge of salary cap dynamics.
I would say that's on the smaller side, but good to see it growing a bit more.
As far as Jim Montgomery, yes. He looks at the numbers that are important to him: offensive zone time, forechecking success by number of times turning the puck over, scoring chances.
He's a process-based coach and not a results-based one, so it makes sense that he cares about analytics, which are process-oriented by nature. But it's just about which ones for him.
HallPlante: You're well informed about the Dallas Stars. Do you think team's recent playoffs disappointments is more a reflection on coaching or roster composition?
Matthew DeFranks: This is going to sound like a cop out, but I attribute it to the small sample size of a playoff series. Last year, the Stars power play went cold. This year, Stuart Skinner was really good on the other side. Perhaps that's roster construction to not be built to play many different ways, since I think many people watched the response to the Roope Hintz injury and called Dallas a soft team.
HallPlante: How much stock should fans place on performance of team's AHL affiliate? Does AHL squad's success or failure provide useful hints for quality of NHL team's emerging prospects?
Matthew DeFranks: To me, not a ton. The teams that win in the AHL are typically ones with older pro players and not young, promising prospects. Sammy Blais was the third-leading scorer this postseason in the AHL.
HallPlante: If you are commissioner, and have the authority, what three rule changes do you impose?
Matthew DeFranks: Slowing expansion, 32 teams is plenty.
If a period starts on a power play, it begins in the offensive zone.
Making injury reports translucent at least. I understand why teams don't want transparency, but day to day for two months is not honest to fans.
That's the queue, so we'll call it there. Have a good week everyone.
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