最新杏吧原创

While there is a strong consensus among draft experts on which players will go with the top four picks, there is more uncertainty at the No. 5 slot.

Where will Flores and his staff ultimately land?

Kade Anderson, Liam Doyle, Aiva Arquette and Ethan Holliday top Keith Law鈥檚 mock draft at The Athletic. That left high school shortstop Eli Willits to the Cardinals on his list:

The top four seem likely to be those four aforementioned names in some order, which might make the Cardinals鈥� lives a little easier as they can negotiate with a larger group of players, knowing that they鈥檙e the high water mark for all of those players. I think Willits, Jamie Arnold and Kyson Witherspoon are near the top of their list, but they鈥檙e unlikely to take (Seth) Hernandez (or any HS pitcher).

In his June 30 mock draft for Baseball America, Carlos Callazo had the same Top 5, with Willits among the most likely going to the STL:

There could be a run on high school shortstops starting here, and Willits is consistently the top name of the group after Holliday and a common link to the Cardinals. If he doesn鈥檛 go here, he has real landing spots with the Pirates, Marlins and Blue Jays. This also sounds like a potential landing spot for Arnold, giving the draft a real chance to see three college lefties taken in the first five picks.

’s Jim Callis went a different direction in his mock draft, slotting prep pitcher Seth Hernandez third, between Doyle and Holliday, and tabbing Auburn outfielder/catcher Ike Irish for the Cardinals:

Assuming the Cardinals won't get a shot at Holliday or Anderson, this decision may come down to cutting a deal with Irish or dipping into the deep prep shortstop pool for (JoJo) Parker or Willits.

Writing for , Kiley McDaniel wondered how much Chaim Bloom will impact the Cardinals’ choice:

The Cards haven't picked a high school player in the top 10 rounds in the past three drafts, instead leaning heavily into college pitching.

While in control in Boston, Bloom wasn't shy about draft prep position players at high picks, including聽Roman Anthony,聽Marcelo Mayer聽and Nick Yorke. Bloom will be taking control of the Cardinals front office聽after this season, so it is an open question if his preferences will be felt a few months before he is the team's top decision-maker.

Prep shortstops Eli Willits, JoJo Parker and Billy Carlson have all been tied here, with the other college players projected in this range of the draft also mentioned.

When Baseball America held a staff draft, UC Santa Barbara pitcher Tyler Bremner went to the Cardinals.

If Flores is leaning hard one way or another, he hasn鈥檛 tipped off the experts to this point.

Here is what folks are writing about Our National Pastime:

Dan Szymborski, FanGraphs: 鈥淭here鈥檚 never a good time to lose a starting pitcher, but doing so when you鈥檝e lost six of your last seven games and have relinquished first place in your division is an especially unwelcome happenstance. This is what the New York Yankees are currently experiencing, as Clarke Schmidt, who was placed on the injured list due to forearm tightness after an early exit from his Thursday start, will likely undergo Tommy John surgery. With a 3.32 ERA, 3.90 FIP, and 1.2 WAR in 14 starts, Schmidt appeared to be headed towards his best season in the majors, but short of a miracle, he鈥檒l now be out until well into the 2026 season at least. Coming just as the offense appeared to be recovering from its June swoon, the Yankees鈥� trade deadline to-do list may have just gotten a bit longer. Six weeks ago, the Yankees were in a strong, though not insurmountable, position at the top of the AL East. No fan should start making travel plans based on a seven-game divisional lead in late May, but it鈥檚 about as strong a position as a team can hope to have in a good division. In his May 28 start, Schmidt threw six shutout innings en route to a 1-0 victory over the Angels, giving the Yankees that a seven-game lead (their seasonal high-water mark) and a 35-20 overall record. Since then, the Yankees have gone 14-21, losing 11 games in the standings relative to the current first-place team, the Blue Jays.鈥�

Patrick Dubuque, Baseball Prospectus: 鈥淓very so often, for a given year, a team will just show up dead on arrival. The Cardinals famously triggered a bout of soul-searching after they started the year 10-24 in 2023, resulting in the slow transference of power in the organization. The 2021 Twins, fresh off a Central title,聽 found themselves 14-28 next May, and instead simply pretended not to see it, running the team back and hanging around in postseason contention until one of their traditional late-season swoons. Narratively speaking, reality seems to like to crash down on aging teams, trying to hold the window open one more year. Like with the Astros last year, when they began 10-19 and鈥� well, the whole point of baseball is to defy narratives. Baltimore wasn鈥檛 supposed to be there, not yet. The Orioles have won 23 of their last 40 games. That doesn鈥檛 sound all that impressive, but would come out to a 92-win pace, not bad for a team originally pinned by a somewhat pessimistic PECOTA to win 89. The trouble, of course, is that the Birds went 15-32 through May 20, forcing president Mike Elias to spend his 鈥榞et out of the hot seat free鈥� card by firing 2023 Manager of the Year聽Brandon Hyde, and nullifying any reason to consider the team at all until around a week before the trade deadline. PECOTA still hasn鈥檛 truly given up hope鈥攊t gives them a 4% chance of making the playoffs, better than the Royals, Angels, and Red Sox鈥攂ut the likely outcome is that Elias will get what he can for the slumping Cedric Mullins (.174/.224/.354 since May 1) and All-Star starter Ryan O鈥橦earn, maybe cover some of the cost on a used-condition聽Zach Elfin, if he can string together a couple quality starts.鈥�

David Schoenfield, : “The Phillies, Reds and Royals all could use an outfielder to add some punch to their lineups, although in Cincinnati's case, its biggest hole is at third base. Philadelphia has a lot riding on 2025 given the age of its lineup, and executive Dave Dombrowski knows how to go all-in. In this case, that would mean parting with one of the top pitching prospects in the game in Painter, plus a promising young outfielder hitting well at Triple-A. Trading Painter would be painful, but the Phillies remain deep in the rotation with Zack Wheeler (signed through 2027), Cristopher Sanchez (signed through 2030), Aaron Nola (signed through 2030) and Jesus Luzardo (under team control through 2026). Ranger Suarez, who's having an excellent season, is heading into free agency, so he's the one arm they might lose. But center field has been a soft spot in recent seasons, with the Phillies in the bottom third in the majors in OPS this year, and the team's overall power output has been below average, even with Kyle Schwarber.”

Megaphone

鈥淚 think this year has been a funny year, not just with us, but throughout baseball. I think offenses are very hot and cold on every team. And I think we're going through the same thing, but the good thing is, I think that when we have struggled at times, we've been able to play a little bit of small ball. Steal some bases, bunt a guy over. Some small little things to create some runs, which has kept our head above water.鈥�

Philadelphia Phillies manager Rob Thomson.