WASHINGTON — As nasty tornadoes popped up from Kansas to Kentucky, a depleted National Weather Service was in scramble mode.
The agency's office in Jackson, Kentucky, had begun closing nightly as deep cuts by Elon Musk's Department of Government Efficiency began hitting. But the weather service kept staffers on overtime Friday night to stay on top of the deadly storms, which killed almost 20 people in the Jackson office's forecast area.
It's a scenario likely to be repeated as the U.S. is on track to see more tornadoes this year than in 2024, which was the second-busiest tornado year on record. Weather service veterans expressed concern about the agency's ability to keep up in the face of the cuts.
A path of destroyed homes is seen Sunday in London, Ky.
Rich Thompson, lead operations forecaster at the NWS Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma, said the job is getting done. But he acknowledged that staffing cuts have "made it harder on us."
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"It has made it hard on the local offices just to make sure that we have all of our important duties covered. But, I mean, most of the people take those important duties seriously, so we're going to do what it takes to cover it," Thompson said. "I hope we're not in the same staffing situation long term. … It would be hard to sustain this for months or years."
NWS spokesperson Erica Grow Cei said the Jackson office "remained fully staffed through the duration of the event using surge staffing" and had support from neighboring offices.
More extreme weather
The Storm Prediction Center tallied 883 local tornado reports this year as of Monday, which was 35% higher than average for this time of year.
Many former weather service employees, especially those fired by the Trump administration, remain connected to the agency's inner workings. They describe an agency that's somehow getting forecasts and warnings out in time, but is also near the breaking point.
"They'll continue to answer the bell as long as they can, but you can only ask people to work 80 hours or 120 hours a week, you know for so long," said Elbert "Joe" Friday, a former weather service director. "They may be so bleary-eyed, they can't identify what's going on on the radar."
Dennis Clark goes through the remains of his house that was destroyed Saturday by severe weather in London, Ky.
Tom DiLiberto, a weather service meteorologist and spokesman who was fired in earlier rounds of the job cuts, said the situation is like a boat with leaks "and you have a certain amount of pieces of duct tape and you keep moving duct tape to different holes. At some point, you can't."
As of March, some of the weather service offices issuing tornado warnings Friday and Sunday were above the 20% vacancy levels that outside experts have said is a critical threshold. Those include Jackson, with a 25% vacancy rate, Louisville, Kentucky, with a 29% vacancy rate, and Wichita, Kansas, with a 32% vacancy rate, according to data compiled by weather service employees and obtained by the AP.
Technologies used to predict tornadoes have significantly improved, but radar can't replace a well-rested staff that has to figure out how nasty or long-lasting storms will be and how to get information to the public, said Karen Kosiba, managing director of the Flexible Array of Mesonets and Radars facility, a network of weather equipment used for research.
"There really are not enough people to handle everything," said University of Oklahoma meteorology professor Howard Bluestein, who chased six tornadoes Sunday. "If the station is understaffed, that could affect the quality of forecasts."
Anthony Broughton stands amid the rubble of his home Saturday after severe weather in London, Ky.,
Cuts hit in different ways
Former weather service Director Louis Uccellini said budget cuts drastically reduced the number of weather balloon launches, which provide critical information for forecasts. Weather service workers aren't being allowed to travel to help train local disaster officials for what to do when they get dangerous weather warnings, he said.
Though the number of tornadoes is almost at a record pace, Thompson and other experts said the tornado outbreak of the last few days is mostly normal for this time of year.
For tornadoes to form, the atmosphere needs a collision of warm moist air from the Gulf of Mexico and storm systems chugging through via the jet stream, the river of air that brings weather fronts from west to east, said Thompson, Bluestein and Harold Brooks of the weather service's National Severe Storm Laboratory.
"The moisture that we're getting from the Gulf of Mexico is a lot more than we used to get," said Bluestein. "That makes the likelihood that we're getting a stronger storm higher and that's pretty unusual."
Temperatures in the Gulf are a couple of degrees warmer than usual for this time of year, according to the weather service.
Edwina Wilson stands in what is left of her destroyed home Sunday in London, Ky.
The connection between climate change and tornadoes is not as well understood as the links between other types of extreme weather such as heavy rainfall and heat waves, experts say.
"Under the climate change scenario, we're kind of supercharging the atmosphere on some days and then actually reducing the favorability on others," said Ohio State University atmospheric sciences professor Jana Houser.
Scientists also see more tornadoes in January, February, March and other times when it used to be too cold for twisters to form, especially in Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi and Tennessee, she said.
More people are also living in harm's way, Brooks said. That's why Uccellini and others see increasing risks to people and property.
"When you have this kind of threat and you're understaffed at some point, something's going to slip through the cracks," Uccellini said. "I can't tell you when it's going to happen."
Is the US becoming uninsurable? How climate change affects insurance costs
Is the US becoming uninsurable? How climate change affects insurance costs
As Southern California still reels from January's catastrophic wildfires, the economic damage has surged to $250 billion, far exceeding initial estimates. But that figure doesn't account for damage incurred by residents whose homes and businesses were reduced to rubble and ash.
The Palisades and Eaton fires alone will result in up to to homeowners and businesses, according to data analytics firm CoreLogic. Of course, that only applies to residents who had insurance in the first place.
In the wake of an extreme weather event, residents typically can rely on insurance claims to repair damaged property —but the increasing frequency and severity of fires, storms, floods, and other occurrences complicate coverage.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in 2023 documented across the U.S., a number that outpaced any prior year on record. Climate change is the main culprit fueling these disasters' increasing frequency and intensity. By September 2023, NOAA reported that the U.S. had already racked up a staggering for that year.
Insurance companies have responded with higher rates to cover costs, culminating in overall higher insurance fees for customers. In June, the Bipartisan Policy Center reported that every quarter since the end of 2017. And car insurance isn't faring any better, either: According to the Washington Post, blizzards, tornadoes, and hailstorms led to a from 2013 to 2023, and hurricanes are responsible for an 88% jump in Florida over the same period.
 used data from to analyze the rising number of billion-dollar disasters and their implications for the insurance marketplace in the U.S.
Some insurers have begun leaving states altogether to ensure profit margins, particularly in coastal areas. Notably, Allstate and State Farm halted new policy sales in 2023 for property and casualty coverage in California due to wildfire costs. Many insurers have abandoned Louisiana and Florida residents as hurricane risk intensifies.
Annual home insurance rates average $2,258 as of February 2025—a slight dip from last year. Costs vary widely based on a home's size, age, and location. Nebraska, Florida, and Oklahoma have the highest rates in the nation.
Severe storms cause the most damage nationally each year
Droughts, storms, and floods were nearly unrelenting throughout 2023. In August, Hurricane Idalia brought storm surge, heavy rains, and flooding to Florida, Georgia, and the Carolinas, causing $3.5 billion in damages. 2024 didn't offer much of a break, either. The year began with tornadoes and high winds across the entire East Coast, racking up $1.8 billion in damages, and ended with back-to-back catastrophic hurricanes, Helene and Milton. Together, they caused an estimated $300 billion in damages and killed 250 people in Florida and other southeastern states.
With severe weather disasters becoming more common, the market for insurance has become more limited—especially in disaster-prone states. In Florida and California, for instance, some big-name insurers have stopped providing services altogether. To counter this, Florida implemented the Hurricane Catastrophe Fund and Citizens Property Insurance Corporation, both of which subsidize home insurance.
California, on the other hand, regulates insurer rates by only allowing them to evaluate based on the past 20 years, not just the current conditions. Both methods are imperfect: Florida's subsidy funds are draining quickly, and many insurers refuse to operate in California.
It's important to note that insurance alone is just treating the symptom of a larger issue: In addition to reevaluating home and auto insurance policies, states need to examine how they brace for—and recover from—natural disasters overall. As storms grow and insurance vanishes, they can't afford not to.
A mutually beneficial option might be for insurers and clients to engage in more transparent negotiations. In wildfire-riddled Oregon, for example, new legislation is attempting to encourage insurers to work with citizens to identify and increase coverage for mitigation measures.
Story editing by Nicole Caldwell and Alizah Salario. Additional editing by Kelly Glass and Elisa Huang. Copy editing by Tim Bruns and Kristen Wegrzyn.
originally appeared on and was produced and distributed in partnership with Stacker Studio.
