Read the full transcript of our weekly Blues chat.
Matthew DeFranks: Good morning! The Blues made their moves in free agency and in the trade market last week. Let's get started a bit early today.
David J.: Matthew: I have a lot of trust in Armstrong, so I am optimistic that Mailloux will turn out to be a good pickup, but did the Blues overpay a bit in the trade? Bolduc established himself this past year as a least good third line winger with top 6 potential, while Mailloux remains a prospect. Should the Blues have gotten more - perhaps a draft pick?
Matthew DeFranks: I think you can look at it multiple ways. One way is that the Blues traded away the No. 17 pick in the 2021 draft for the No. 31 pick in the 2021 draft. Obviously, Mailloux had his case in Sweden hanging over his draft status, but those are the raw figures. Bolduc has played about 100 NHL games. Mailloux has spent the last two seasons in the AHL.
There are good reasons to think that the Blues at this very instant, right now, traded away the more impactful NHL player. But for the Blues, this trade wasn't about right now. It's about getting Mailloux for the future and fitting him in to a defensive group that lacked someone in his age group.
Doug Armstrong maybe could have tried to squeeze an extra draft pick out of the situation, but at a certain point, they liked the player enough they were getting back.
Tylerg: Matty D, as always thank you for doing this for us; we appreciate you taking the time. My hope is that you, your wife and newborn are doing well bro. Two questions for you this week as we are now in the slower period of the NHL off season: (1) Any truth to the Kyrou/Montreal rumors? What would that trade even look like in your eyes if it happened. (2) It feels like the Blues went with solid/responsible forward needs in the Suter and Bjorkstrand signings. I hope that helps with the 6 on 5 issues the Blues had last year. My question is about Sunqvist, where on earth does he fit in with this team? He has a low cap hit sure and I know fans rever him, but he鈥檚 probably only looking at what 30-40 games this year with STL? What are your thoughts? Again, thanks for doing this my guy, cheers!
Matthew DeFranks: I don't have new reporting to add to the Kyrou/Montreal discourse. But just thinking out loud, it doesn't make sense to me. I don't doubt that the two teams were talking about Kyrou. But if the Blues were going to think seriously about trading him, it would have been before his no-trade clause kicked in. And I don't know how often you see two teams involved in two different trades in such a short period of time. If it was going to get done, June was probably the time. If it was going to get done, I don't know if Bolduc/Mailloux gets across the finish line.
I do think that Pius Suter is a very responsible player. He'll help the team's overall defensive game, and he'll probably be first out on the PK when the faceoff is on the left side. Nick Bjugstad, though, isn't really that sort of player despite his role in the bottom-six. He's really only killed penalties in two seasons of his NHL career, and his advanced defensive analytics are not really good.
So I think Suter helps in that regard, but not really Bjugstad.
As for Sundqvist, I still think there's a fit for him on the fourth line in Radek Faksa's old spot. I think we forget that Sundqvist was still battling injuries last season and was only playing half of back-to-backs because of his knee surgery. He'll be older, yes, but he'll be healthier. He's not going to be a good skater, I don't think that's anyone's expectation. But he'll be able to provide energy in a more limited role that last season.
I do think there will be times that Sundqvist is a scratch this season. Nick Bjugstad can slot in as the fourth-line center, and Alexandre Texier/Mathieu Joseph can fill a spot as a third-line winger. But I don't think it's a foregone conclusion that Sundqvist is on the outside looking in already.
DenMizzou: Hello, Mr. DeFranks. thank you for the chat. I am still trying to learn about hockey, so I am hoping your can explain why the Blues traded Bolduc for the defenseman prospect from Montreal, especially since the Blues have drafted so heavily on defense the past couple years. I realize the Blues have to get younger on the blue line, but I would think having a young goal scorer like Bolduc would be more important, especially for a team that was only something like 13th or 14th in the league in scoring. I would think that goal scorers in hockey would be like pitching in baseball -- you never can have enough. What am I missing, please? Thank you.
Matthew DeFranks: It all comes down to how the Blues view scarcity by position. Organizationally, they believe that defensemen are the hardest to find, then centers, then wingers. And the Blues had a ton of wingers. There's already Pavel Buchnevich, Jordan Kyrou, Dylan Holloway, Jimmy Snuggerud and Jake Neighbours in the NHL. Otto Stenberg and Justin Carbonneau are recent first-rounders that will play on the wing, plus center Dalibor Dvorsky that could shift to the wing in the NHL.
So Doug Armstrong looked at that depth chart, both currently on the roster and in the pipeline and deemed Zack Bolduc expendable. You're right that the Blues have drafted a lot of defensemen in recent years, but they are 2-4 years behind where Logan Mailloux is right now.
If you had Broberg (24), Lindstein (20), Jiricek (19), Ralph (19) and Fischer (18), there was an obvious age gap in the early 20s. Mailloux (22) fills that.
mrr: Any thoughts of any young "surprises" we might see make the team in camp?
Matthew DeFranks: You have the typical young guys like Dvorsky, Stenberg and then add in the guys turning pro this fall in Stancl and Pekarcik. If Carbonneau goes back to junior and is at training camp in the fall, I would imagine he gets a game or two to see what he looks like.
On defense, Jiricek and Lindstein will be in camp, but I don't expect them to challenge for a roster spot.
Dark horse? Nikita Alexandrov. His time as a prospect has passed, but he turned in a solid year in the AHL last season and could be serviceable as an extra forward that's also capable of playing center.
Dustin: Any update on the Bo Byram situation as it applies to the Blues? Anything there or has the ship sailed?
Matthew DeFranks: I can see the Blues viewing him as a Cam Fowler replacement in a year, and at a much younger age, too. That would be a huge hole to fill and doing so with a player that fits the early 20s age range that the organization has prioritized in recent seasons.
Byram's counting numbers were among the best in the league last season at 5v5. He had 33 points at 5v5, which was tied for fifth in the NHL among defensemen. He was behind Werenski, Makar, Dahlin and Q. Hughes. Not bad company. He was on the ice for 80 goals for, the second most in the league behind Werenski.
Those are good things! But there are real drawbacks hiding in the weeds with Byram.
His underlying numbers when he's playing with anyone besides Rasmus Dahlin are horrible. The same was true when he was in Colorado. Minutes with Makar? Crushed them. Without Makar? Ehhh. That's great if you have a Dahlin or Makar level talent, but the Blues don't have that. So would he be able to elevate his partner? It's unclear.
Buffalo has made it clear to teams around the league that he wants NHL pieces in a deal. So is that Jake Neighbours, who has averaged 25 goals the last two seasons? Plus other pieces?
And add in the fact that Byram is due a new contract that could very well end up as the most expensive in Blues history for someone that was the third-best defenseman on the Buffalo Sabres last year?
It's a lot of question marks.
Concerned: Good morning wanted to add comment Jordon K is not the rough or sandpaper type player for playoff hockey he disappears it that type of tough series. He will help regular season to get to playoffs,but falls after that.
Matthew DeFranks: You're right, he doesn't play a playoff style of hockey. That type of game doesn't come easy to him, and he wasn't all that impactful in the first round against Winnipeg. Teams can probably get away with having a couple of those types of players on a roster if the rest of it plays that physical, gritty style.
DC: I think I'm at the point where Sundqvist can get the boot. I get people like the effort but every time i hear John Kelly call his name he's going ass over teakettle and can't stay on his feet. Am I the only one that notices this?
Matthew DeFranks: He does fall a lot, and plenty of it is of his own doing trying to, um, draw penalties.
Blues Lifer: Matthew, you do a fantastic job with the chats. I read them regularly but I have never sent in a question. Do you think Armstrong wants to trade Kyrou for the right price? I think he does and for what is probably good reason. Kyrou can score goals but he does not play a 200-foot game and his compete level is in question. The playoffs are a different animal. I'm concerned Kyrou is not up to the challenge. I think Armstrong feels the same way and would trade him for a fair price.
Matthew DeFranks: I don't think that he's actively looking to move him. If that were the case, it would have been intensified before Kyrou's NTC kicked in. I think that Armstrong should know the value of his players on the trade market. Like if Kyrou was valuable enough to land one of the maybe 16 No. 1 D in the league, I think that would interest Armstrong.
This has been a constant in the chat across the last few years: Jordan Kyrou's value outweighs his contract and he's one of the only Blues that is able to create his own offense instead of creating it for others.
Gopony: While excited to see Snuggy, the blues sure seem locked in on him being a key piece for the top line. Your thoughts on this given his limited NHL experience?
Matthew DeFranks: I think the Blues will get to see what he looks like in games 50 and 60. He hasn't played this type of schedule before after a college career that was 40 games a year and playing twice a week.
I wouldn't be surprised to see him play with Thomas and Buchnevich, but see his minutes in key situations (late game, closing a game) drop.
Dustin: Agreed. I think if they are willing to pay that much for a coernerstone piece, it would be for a player with less downside / question marks
Matthew DeFranks: At some point, the Blues will have to break their internal salary structure with the new rising cap era. For a long time, they've had the $6.5 million figure on the back end, and Thomas and Kyrou's $8.125 million figure up front has held.
Byram's long-term comps have been in the $8 or $9 million range when we think about Sanderson, Faber, Dobson, Seider, Miller, etc. It can be further fine tuned from there, but you get the point about the ballpark that Byram is playing in.
bo: Even though many fans think Kyrou cant be a force in the playoffs he is young and getting better and might be int he future . However you still have to get to the playoffs and a strong scorer in the regular season is necessary for that and the blues lack much superior scoring behind Kyrou for that so i say keep him for sure . As far a Mailloux he would have gone much higher in the 2021 draft had he not told teams not to draft him and the Sweden issue was out there ,so his pick at 31 is a bit unusual .
Matthew DeFranks: Yeah, on Mailloux, I wonder if the Blues would have taken him outright at 17 if he hadn't asked teams not to select him. Doug Armstrong didn't say that outright when we spoke to him, but he did make it sound like his desire to not be picked was a factor in the Blues' decision.
When we spoke to Armstrong pre-draft, he talked about the Panthers and whether their success had changed or reinforced his philosophy on how successful teams are built. And he said something along the lines of "need skill to get in, and grit once you're there."
TJKATL: Don't get to see the Blues as much as I'd like so a bit in the dark. But what are your thughts on Cam Fowler? Was he an under-the-radar guy that STL stole from ANA? Or was he lousy there and turned it around at STL? Also, you have any idea if DA considers letting Pietrangelo go one of his worst moves?
Matthew DeFranks: On Cam Fowler, the Ducks were going a younger direction with their defensemen when you look at LaCombe, Zellweger and Mintyukov. Then they added Trouba and Vaakanainen, and Fowler become expendable. He wasn't playing much on the power play and his role was declining at 5v5.
He comes to 最新杏吧原创, and he's on the top power play unit. He's on the top pair with Parayko. Did he benefit from an abnormally high shooting percentage from his teammates (14.34%) that inflated his points? Sure.
I also think that the Blues scouts that handle the Pacific Division have been superb recently. Think about Broberg, Holloway and Fowler. They all hit. I know Troy Brouwer is based in Alberta, and Dave Taylor is still in Southern California, but I don't know how the exact scouting responsibilities break down across the organization.
As for Pietrangelo, I would think yes. We saw he still had plenty of great hockey in him in Vegas and he pushed himself past the limit as we see with his situation right now. If he re-signs and retires a Blue, 27 is in the rafters no doubt and a statue is out front. Still could happen, but it's more of a conversation at this point.
KevoTG: After the flurry of moves, are the Blues within striking distance of a top 3 division spot?
Matt L: Good morning, looking around the central division, it appears to me that the best teams from last year (Dal, Wpg, Col) probably got a little worse while the Blues and Utah got better. Word is still out on Minny to see what happens with Rossi but they have some exciting young players who could continue improving. I expect Nashville to be better simply because they had some of the worst luck in the league last year. With the exception of Chicago, it feels like anyone else could have a realistic expectation of finishing top 3 and any team could find themselves on or outside the playoff bubble with injuries or a bad start. Agree or disagree?
Matthew DeFranks: I would tend to agree. I still think there is a tier of Dallas and Colorado at the top of the division purely based on star power. Winnipeg can always be around because of Hellebuyck. But I tend to agree that those three teams all got worse this offseason.
Nashville might have had bad luck last year, but they're another year older, too, and that coach could be one of the first ones fired next season.
It's not anyone's division, but I do think it's more wide open than previously.
Matt L: Any idea on whether Army is going to pursue extensions for Holloway, Broberg and Fowler? Are Holloway and Broberg UFA after the year or do they still have another year of restricted status?
Matthew DeFranks: Armstrong said it was not a priority for him for a few reasons. One, he wanted to see what the new market with the cap looks like before he sets the market with deals. Two, their ages don't make a deal all that pressing.
Fowler is 33. Broberg is 24. Holloway is 23. So if they were 26 year old becoming UFAs, it would be more on his plate. But not right now is how he made it seem.
Holloway is under contract for next season, and then has three more years of RFA after that. So a UFA in 2029.
Broberg is under contract for next season, and then has two more year of RFA. So a UFA in 2028.
Matt L: Any intel on when the schedule will be coming out?
Matthew DeFranks: I believe John Shannon reported it would be July 16. The Blues said something similar when I spoke to them.
mrr: sooo...most of the offseason moves are done, right? (no offer sheet madness expected) What odds do you give the blues of making the playoffs as currently constructed? 50-50? better than last year?
Matthew DeFranks: Better than 50-50, I would say. But it's not like 75% in my mind. Given the internal improvements expected, a full season of Montgomery, and potential for more consistent goaltending, I think the potential is there for good postseason chances.
Matt L: I鈥檇 like to go see a Blues game on the road this year. Scheduling considerations aside, do you have any recommendations? Let鈥檚 take Vegas out bc I was lucky enough to do that already. Want a good atmosphere (no one wants to travel to see a game with the place a third empty) and amen near the arena. What comes to mind?
Matthew DeFranks: I have three recommendations.
1. They usually group Montreal and Toronto on the same trip. Montreal is the best road city in the league because the culture is so different and that building is so alive every night. Toronto is a pilgrimage in its own right with the HOF there, too. So I would look at those two cities, and then maybe see if there are nearby junior games in the OHL or QMJHL that work out in the schedule. Add in some sightseeing around Montreal or even a trip to Quebec City (I haven't been, but heard it's beautiful) and that's a wonderful itinerary.
2. If they give the Blues all three New York area teams on the same trip, it's fun to spend a week in NY. Last year, it worked out this way and was able to go to a Broadway show, hit up the Museum of Natural History, walk Central Park, see friends from college and go to three hockey games. Of course, the whole Bannister/Montgomery switch was the bigger story, but NY is enjoyable to me. And I love, love, love Madison Square Garden.
3. Western Canada is stunning. From Calgary, you can drive to Banff and Lake Louise. From Vancouver, you can drive to Whistler or take a seaplane to Victoria. It's all gorgeous. Add in the uniqueness of the Saddledome, the new building in Edmonton and a generally decent atmosphere in Vancouver, and it's a great trip.
The Tampa and Florida trip is an honorable mention purely because it's a welcome respite in December to walk around by the water in mid-70s when it's freezing back home.
Matt L: Let鈥檚 suspend disbelief here for a second and have some fun. If Sidney Crosby was looking for a move from a rebuilding Pit team, the Blues would have the prospects and cap room to be in that conversation. Let鈥檚 say the Blues can make that deal without subtracting any key contributors for next season (thinking a first, Dvorsky and a couple other good prospects). One, should the Blues do it? And two, if they could pull it off, do they become legit cup contender?
Matthew DeFranks: Yes and ... yes??? Two years of Crosby would give you Crosby, Thomas, Schenn, Suter down the middle. Add in that Schenn and Crosby are really, really good friends and that's a nice fit. Dubas and Armstrong are old trade partners and Hockey Canada pals. The relationships line up.
DCG: In the words of Ricky Bobby, "all due respect," but do the Blues really have "tons of wingers"? It seems to me that you look at Florida, which can roll out four capable scoring lines, while the Blues have two. Next year's third line will be built on hope and prayer in terms of development. I echo the previous chatter who noted all the D-men the Blues seem high on in their minors. I really hate seeing Bolduc leave, especially since he seems to score in areas that others on this team don't.
Matthew DeFranks: Just because you say with "all due respect" doesn't mean you just get to say whatever you want!
DCG: "It sure as h--- does!"
Matthew DeFranks: Let me come at you like a spider monkey.
I understand the concern.
But if we look at Neighbours (22 goals) and Suter (25), that's already 47 goals scored by Blues third-liners last season. Add in Bjugstad at eight, and we're up to 55 goals.
In the regular season, Marchand (23), Lundell (17) and Luostarinen (9) combined for 49 goals.
It has bothered me that the Blues have talked about wanting three scoring lines, but then list their depth chart as if only the top-six forwards matter. I remember it happening before the season last year, and happening again this summer.
DCG:聽Aren't you fiddling with numbers a bit? I mean, Marchand didn't spend the whole year with FL. Surely his numbers would have been higher on that time. Meanwhile, I don't know if it was you or Gordo who noted that Suter's numbers were inflated by Vancouver's awfulness and his getting tons more ice time than in the past and being given way more opportunities to score on a team with little offensive punch? In other words, is he really a 25 goal guy in STL?
Matthew DeFranks: Fair points. I think I just wanted to point out that having that many goals on the third line isn't a given across the league.
Marchand's level probably lies somewhere between his 23 goals in 71 regular-season games, and 10 goals in the playoffs.
Suter's level is likely below the 25 he scored last season based purely on shooting percentage.
Dallas has historically been lauded for their forward depth, and they might be rolling out Benn-Steel-Bourque on the third line (33 goals). Carolina might have Martinook-Staal-Stankoven (42 goals). Vegas could roll Saad-Karlsson-Smith (35 goals).
There are valid questions with the Blues. Is Jake Neighbours really going to be penciled in for 25 goals a season? Will Pius Suter ever reach that offensive level again? And is there a single threat capable of filling that other wing?
rabidmonkeyfish99: Why does it seem that 1/2 of the NHL is looking for a 2C? Unlike the small supply of RHD that is due to handedness, a C can be either L or R. Why are so few centers graduating through the ranks these days that are viewed as competent 2Cs?
Matthew DeFranks: I don't have a good answer for you, but I'll try. Expansion meant at least four more players were pushed into that conversation that didn't belong before. And then teams with a glut of centers typically hang on to them, so there are fewer available on the open market.
rabidmonkeyfish99: Do you think there is more to unlock with Broberg's offensive game? His skating speed is 99 percentile, but where do you think he is at and can get to with his 1) shot, 2) passing and 3) offensive reads?
Matthew DeFranks: For those unfamiliar, NHL Edge tracks skating data. Here's Broberg's figures: top skating speed (96th percentile among defensemen), speed bursts over 22 mph (98th percentile), speed bursts over 20 mph (92nd percentile).
I know the coaches asked him to jump up more in the rush last season, and that produced a touch bit more of offense. I think if he ever gets power play time, that's help, too, since his 5v5 scoring is already tied for 38th in the NHL at 23 points.
rabidmonkeyfish99: I can appreciate Armstrong's focus on big and mobile defensemen that can make outlet passes, but i will never understand why Krug was signed in the first place. Just doesn't seem like an Armstrong guy. Do you think that would be one of Armstrong's biggest regrets? It just seemed like the Blues version of the Cards signing Dexter Fowler after losing Jason Heyward to the Cubs.
Matthew DeFranks: Krug was the second-best defenseman on the free agent market that summer, so it's not like he was just some guy and he always played bigger than his size let him. I do wonder what the medicals said at the time about Krug's ankle since it had already been fractured.
rabidmonkeyfish99: Do you think Broberg's reticence to join the rush was more residual from his Oilers days or was that more trying to impress the Blues due to his new contract and limit his mistakes?
Matthew DeFranks: I think it was more of the coaching staff just reminding him that he's really good at it versus adding it to his game.
That's everything in the queue, so we'll call it there. Have a good week everyone!
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